Comparison and analysis of annual industry value o

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Star industry is always strong -- comparative analysis of industry value in 2004

star industry is always strong -- comparative analysis of industry value in 2004

China Construction machinery information

Guide: in 2004, we still continue to firmly value the upstream raw materials and resource-based industries. Under the background of China entering the era of heavy industry, the industry operation cycle determines that these industries should have a golden rise period of years. We believe that we should conform to the development law of the industry, follow the trend and continue to pay high attention to Gao

in 2004, we continue to be firmly optimistic about the upstream raw materials and resource-based industries. Under the background of China entering the era of heavy industry, the industry operation cycle determines that these industries should have a "golden" rise period of years

we believe that complying with the development law of the industry, following the trend, and continuing to pay high attention to the leading varieties of high boom industries will still bring investors returns that exceed the average level of the market

2003 was a year of sharp differentiation in the trend of industry sectors in the securities market. Although the entire A-share market rose by 3.1% in the whole year (January 1 to November 27, 2003), the performance of various industries was very different. The top four industries (steel, port, automobile, communication operation) with the best performance exceeded the market by more than 25%, The six industries with the worst performance (new metal materials, retail, papermaking, chemicals, park development, traditional Chinese Medicine) are weaker than the market by more than 20 percentage points. Among the 48 industries we tracked, only 13 industries can finally outperform the market, accounting for less than 30%

the prosperity of the industry has become the most important indicator to determine the trend of the industry. 2003 was the first year when "value investment" prevailed in the securities market, and the prosperity of the industry gradually became the most important factor for investors to judge the investment value of the industry. From the perspective of the 10 industries with the best performance in 2003, steel, port, automobile, petrochemical, power, non-ferrous metals and other industries were all industries with good prosperity, while steel, automobile, petrochemical In the first three quarters of 2003, the new profits of Listed Companies in five industries, including banks, accounted for more than 92% of the new profits of all listed companies

the high-profile industry with good industry representation has become the biggest winner, and a large number of large cap blue chips with huge circulation market value and strong industry representation have become the best representatives to reflect the prosperity of the industry. It is the industry leaders with excellent performance and broad market appeal such as Baosteel, Angang New rolling, Sinopec, Yangzi Petrochemical, Shanghai automobile, Shanggang header, Yantian port, Shanghai airport and Huaneng International that have led the continuous rise of steel, petrochemical, automobile, port, electric power and other industries and become the star industry of this year. Similarly, the reason behind the rebound of information technology listed companies in the second half of the year that failed to attract widespread recognition in the market is the lack of leading varieties with real appeal and substantial performance support such as Intel and Microsoft in China's A-share market

the performance of upstream raw materials and resource industries was eye-catching in 2003. Among the top 10 industries, 7 are upstream raw materials and resource industries. This is by no means a special coincidence, which profoundly shows that investors have paid more attention to and favored the industries at the top of the industrial chain and with monopolistic and competitive positions in the context of China's sustained and rapid economic growth. We believe that as China gradually enters the era of heavy industrialization, this attention and favor will continue to be strengthened in the capital market

in 2004, in addition to 12 promising industries such as electric power, steel and electric power equipment (see table), some sub industries also have high investment value, which can be considered as the key objects in the asset allocation of the industry. These sub industries include nitrogen fertilizer and polyvinyl chloride (chemical products), viscose staple fiber (chemical fiber), construction machinery (special equipment), grain and cotton planting (planting industry), patent avoiding API (chemical pharmaceutical), tire (rubber) Dairy products (food processing), high-end Baijiu and wine (beverage manufacturing), etc

although many of these promising industries have increased significantly in 2003, in a closed environment such as China's securities market, the number of industry leaders with good liquidity and high prospects is still relatively small. Therefore, it is still the best choice at present to comply with the cyclical law of industry development, continue to focus on these industry leaders with rising prosperity and firm investment, And it will earn more than the average level of the market in 2004

we believe and expect these star industries of 2003 to score twice in 2004, and the stronger the stronger

coal mining

the strong demand of steel industry and power industry makes their common upstream industry - the value of coal highlight again. It is expected that the growth rate of coal production in 2003 and 2004 will gradually increase, but the growth rate of domestic demand will be greater. Under the background of frequent emergencies of power coal and metallurgical coal, "lack of coal" may become a new topic of concern. Although the power enterprises and coal enterprises reluctantly reached a compromise under the coordination of relevant state departments in 2003, facing the increasingly tense contradiction between supply and demand, we believe that the price of coal bulk contract price in 2004 will still increase on the basis of 2003, and the market price may increase by more than 10%. Companies recommended to be concerned include Yanzhou Coal Industry Co., Ltd. and Guoyang Xinneng Co., Ltd

these chemical groups usually combine graphene with other materials. After the sharp recovery in 2003, the prosperity of petrochemical industry showed a continuous upward trend. 2004 is still the middle stage of the global recovery of the petrochemical industry, and the peak period of this cycle will not be brought until after 2005 at the earliest. Jinan new era Gold Testing Instrument Co., Ltd. now has high-end machines for many four years. The crude oil price is expected to fall by about 15% compared with 2003, and the recovery of the world economy will bring greater demand. Under the condition that the global capacity growth rate of new petrochemical plants is lower than the demand growth rate, 2004 will still be a bumper year for petrochemical industry. The price of synthetic resin, the largest category of petrochemical products, continues to rise and is expected to remain high in 2004. Relevant listed companies deserve special attention, such as Qilu Petrochemical and Shanghai Petrochemical

power equipment

the phenomenon of power shortage and the stable high return of the power industry have led to the rapid growth of investment in power projects. The national investment in power construction during the Tenth Five Year Plan period has also increased by 40%, and the corresponding power equipment manufacturing industry is experiencing a honeymoon period. The orders of major power generation equipment manufacturers have been placed until 2008. With the gradual delivery of power generation equipment and the full implementation of the "west to East power transmission" and the Three Gorges power transmission project, the power transmission and transformation equipment industry will usher in a real construction peak in 2004. At present, the power equipment industry will become the most reliable growth industry in the coming years, and its profit growth rate is expected to remain above 20%. It is suggested to focus on leading enterprises, such as Jidian, TBEA, etc

civil aviation transportation

due to the impact of SARS in the first half of the year, the growth of civil aviation passenger turnover in 2003 was almost zero, the lowest point over the years. However, the industry is still driven by consumption and Commerce and has an internal growth momentum. Due to the low base in 2003, the growth rate in 2004 will reach a new high of nearly 10 years, and will return to the normal growth rate of about 15% in 2005. At the same time, as the industry with the most obvious gains from RMB appreciation, this industry is also a reassuring industry. China Southern Airlines and Shanghai Airlines have the most investment value in this industry

communication operation

the communication operation industry is a typical oligopoly industry. It is impossible to issue new mobile communication licenses in 2004, so the current competition is still concentrated in China Mobile and China Unicom. After two years of growth decline, the growth rate of telecom business revenue will rise slightly from 2004. As the only A-share listed company listed in China, China Unicom divested and transferred its paging business with long-term losses and acquired the mobile communication operation business in nine provinces at the end of 2003, eliminating the huge burden that has plagued its performance improvement for a long time, and its performance is expected to increase by more than 40% in 2004. Therefore, we are optimistic about the operation of China Unicom in 2004


although the steel production capacity under construction is quite large, and some of it has formed a production scale, we believe that the design capacity will not increase sharply until the second half of 2004 and even 2005 at the earliest. At present, the shortage of coke, pig iron and other resources made the actual production capacity of steel and iron increase little in 2004, especially the global economic recovery led to unprecedented tension in the world shipping capacity, As a result, iron ore with large volume and low price cannot be transported to China's coastal ports in time. It is estimated that the total market demand in 2004 will still increase by about 15%, and the annual average price of steel will be no different from that in 2003. Shanghai Baosteel, a leading enterprise in the iron and steel industry, raised the product price of steel products in the first quarter of 2004 by yuan on the current basis at the end of November 2003, which will basically set the benchmark for the steel price trend of the whole industry in the first half of 2004. At least in the first half of 2004, we believe that steel prices will not send a clear signal of price decline. Industry leaders are still our preferred varieties, and Baosteel, Angang New rolling and TISCO stainless are our preferred varieties

complete automobile

as the car industry with the largest profit support in complete automobile, it is estimated that the sales growth rate will reach a record 60% in 2003, and the profit growth rate of the industry is more likely to double first. Behind these amazing growth figures is the contribution made by the explosive savings consumption we mentioned above, while the most conservative estimate for 2004 is that the sales growth will still exceed 30%. Judging from the current price competition, it is mainly about 10000 yuan of economic cars, and this kind of products have little contribution to the profits of manufacturers. The most profitable medium and high-end cars are still in a serious situation of short supply because the long-term savings consumption has not been fully released. Judging from the current signs, there will still be no fundamental change in this situation in 2004. Therefore, we still believe that enterprises with medium and high-end car assets will still achieve substantial profit returns and growth in 2004. Listed companies subordinate to large automobile groups with brand advantages are still the core varieties we are optimistic about, such as SAIC Motor and FAW cars

raw materials and energy industries

due to the continuous growth of China's own economy and China's becoming the world's manufacturing center, China is entering the era of heavy industry, which puts forward sustained and strong demand for the upstream basic and energy industries. At the same time, the moderate rise in the price of downstream consumer goods caused by the rise in the price of agricultural products since the second half of 2003 will alleviate the rebound caused by the rise in the price of raw materials in the middle and lower reaches of the industry to a certain extent, so that the prices of these upstream industries can remain or even reach a new high

in addition, the improvement of the world economy has also laid a good international environment for these industries. These industries include: power, power equipment, coal mining, petrochemical, non-ferrous metals, steel and other industries, nitrogen fertilizer, construction machinery

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